Since 1995 the Lithuanian Labour Exchange in accordance with the employment methodology prepared in cooperation with the experts of Swedish Public Employment Service annually makes the labour market outlook for an upcoming year to forecast the labour market changes.

Forecast of the labour market for 2011 was issued pursuant to the results of employers interviews, also by evaluating the labour market results and the tendencies of the macroeconomic indicators. To prepare the forecast, 4 thousand employers were interviewed across different sectors: 59 % were service sector companies, 24 % industry sector, 10 % agricultural sector, and 7 %construction sector companies. 96 % of the interviewed representatives were from minor and average enterprises.

The registered unemployment rate will decrease

The labour market indexes react to the changes of economy at a slower pace. When the economy recovers, the indexes show a relative and slow improvement. Considerable changes in the labour market occur only after the recovery of economy.  Stronger job growth in business will be possible, if the Lithuanian economy increase annually by more than 3 per cent.

It is forecasted that the registered unemployment will be lower than 10 % in the second half of 2011 but the average annual rate will be about 13.3 %.

The territorial differences in unemployment

The range between the highest and the lowest registered unemployment will be about 4 times the average for the country as a whole (in 2010 it was slightly less than 4 times).

In 2011, the highest unemployment will be in Mazeikiai, Ignalina, Vilnius, Salcininkai, Akmene and Lazdijai districts. It is forecasted that in these municipalities the average annual unemployment rate will exceed 17 %. The lowest average annual unemployment rate of below 11 % will be expected in Radviliskis district, Elektrenai, Siauliai city, Pakruojis district and other small municipalities.

Unemployment will decline in the bigger cities. The decrease of the average annual unemployment rate there will be about 1.5 percentage points. It is slightly higher than in the whole country. The decrease in Siauliai city can be about 2 percentage points.

The situation in the labour market will improve, but remain tense

It is forecasted that about 280 thousand unemployed will be registered in 2011. The average annual number of registered unemployed will be 280-290 thousand. Compared with 2010, it will reduce by 8 % or about 25 thousand people. Male employment should be higher than female one because of the industry recovery in 2010 and the expected development in construction sector this year. Male registered unemployment rate will decline faster than female, but remains higher.

Job creation will outweigh job liquidation

In 2010, it was registered almost twice more job vacancies but the number of jobseekers was decreasing. Most new jobs will be created in small and average companies (up to 249 employees) in the private sector and this will make up 51 % of the total created new jobs. The difference of job creation and liquidation will be positive and will increase. It is expected that in 2011 the flow of workers out and into the labour market will stabilise. If the job creation and liquidation balance increases, employability will increase too. Job losses are expected in the public sector service except agricultural institutions. In 2011, a large number of the public sector employees will be painfully hit by the implementation of reforms and restructuring.

Positive job creation balance is forecasted in:

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles;
• construction of buildings;
• land transport and transport via pipelines;
• manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, of articles of straw and plaiting materials;
• manufacture of wearing apparel;
• civil engineering.

Negative job creation balance is forecasted in:

• education;
• manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products;
• manufacture of chemicals and chemical products;
• postal and courier activities;
• manufacture of tobacco products.

Job creation will increase most in the private small business sector

The biggest share (over 41 %) of total job offers will be in the service sector. About one-third of job offers will be registered in the industry sector, the other will be in the construction and agricultural sectors.

The major part of new jobs will be created in the private sector. Job liquidation will be inclined both in public and private sectors. More jobs will be created in small companies of both sectors. However, in 2011 most new jobs will be created in companies with 100 and more workers (these will be mainly service companies).

Employability

It is forecasted that in 2011, of total job offers, 9 % will be registered for professionals, 67.9 % for service workers and skilled workers and 24.9 % for unskilled workers.

The most demanded will be sales managers, medical doctors, insurance representatives (managers), sewing technologists, international carriage of goods vehicle drivers (with ADR certificates), tailors, sales workers, concrete placers, bartenders waiters and metal working machine operators.

For employment opportunity barometer for 2011 click here